集微访谈|Andreas Boes教授：欧洲电动汽车市场正面临新的前景与挑战

集微网消息，在往期的集微访谈栏目中，爱集微有幸采访了达姆施塔特工业大学的Andreas Boes教授，对关于汽车行业的人才培养体系改革、IRA将如何影响德国或欧洲的电动汽车市场以及特斯拉德国工厂的前景等方面提出了一系列问题，并收到了十分有启发的答复。

问：随着软件越来越重要，汽车行业的人才培养体系会不会改革？或者说，未来汽车行业对劳动力的技术要求是否更高？

答：软件在汽车行业中日益重要的地位是该行业发生根本性变革的重要时刻。它的核心是关于一种基于数据和信息的新生产方式的出现。因此，汽车行业面临着实施重大转型以使其商业模式和生产方法与信息经济保持一致的挑战。只有当员工获得新的资格和能力并且劳动力的构成与新的概况相匹配时，这才能成功。

因此需要以下内容：新的软件能力，特别是在汽车行业迄今为止很少受到关注的技术领域（云、人工智能、软件生命周期管理、软件架构等）；基于数据的经济环境中的能力，特别是数据科学和分析，以及在持续创新过程（敏捷性）意义上的价值创造组织的相关根本变化；在生态系统中成功协作的能力，尤其是与来自具有不同核心竞争力和文化的其他行业（例如，来自互联网经济、能源行业、IT行业等）的公司；在软件和硬件之间的交互中出现了一种新的关键能力。德国汽车制造商在硬件领域拥有非常高的竞争力。他们现在必须学会将这些与现代软件开发的高能力结合起来。

总而言之，这意味着软件作为汽车行业向信息经济转型的核心时刻的重要性与日俱增，同时也伴随着劳动力素质的范式转变。这不仅包括新的技术能力，而且最重要的是跨职能团队合作、跨不同学科背景的协作和沟通专业知识，即与其他学科的专家成功分享技术专业知识的能力。

问：美国最近通过的通货膨胀法案（IRA）包括对新旧电动汽车的税收抵免，以及对商用电动汽车的激励措施。许多韩国和日本的汽车公司非常不喜欢该法案，因为他们认为该法案对于开放市场的竞争不公平。您能否分析一下IRA将如何影响德国或欧洲的电动汽车市场？

答：目前还无法最终评估《降低通胀法案》(IRA)对欧洲汽车行业未来的意义，德国正在认真讨论。一方面，德国汽车行业在本地化战略方面习惯于应对本地化要求。另一方面，由于美国的特殊重要性和复杂的地缘政治格局，IRA有可能引发对德国和欧洲汽车行业劳动力产生负面影响。通过适当的本地化策略，大公司可以管理相关的后果。然而，经济后果，尤其是对欧洲公司就业的影响，可能会导致更严重的扭曲。

问：您如何看待特斯拉德国工厂（Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg）的前景？他们在德国的计划产出和招聘系统面临的主要挑战是什么？

答：特斯拉选择了一个冒险的策略，即通过将超级工厂设在柏林-勃兰登堡来在欧洲市场上确立自己的地位。在德国最大的工厂沃尔夫斯堡的大众工厂附近建厂，不仅意味着挑战欧洲最大的汽车制造商，而且还面临与德国汽车行业的工资和工作条件竞争的风险。事实上，特斯拉显然正在努力实现其在德国的生产目标，因为员工的招聘和入职速度低于实现生产目标所需的速度。

最近几周，越来越多的报道称，与德国标准相比，员工招聘困难、病假率高和员工流动率高。IG Metall工业工会将此归因于这样一个事实，例如，特斯拉的工资水平比德国主要制造商的集体谈判水平低约20%。因此，特斯拉成功的一个关键问题将是他们如何与德国的劳资关系联系起来，以及他们是否愿意与德国工会合作并同意集体谈判条件。

问：目前，北美在欧洲高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）市场占有相当大的市场份额，您对欧洲ADAS市场主要竞争对手（博世、宝马、大陆）的表现有任何调查吗？

答：德国制造商在开发驾驶辅助系统方面有着悠久的传统，并且正在ADAS领域进行大量投资。然而，为了进一步发展这些技术，他们需要某些关键技术（SoC、AI、云等）的专业知识，而这些专业知识主要来自美国制造商（英伟达、高通、英特尔）。这会产生战略依赖关系，带来尚未解决的后果。

开发ADAS的最大问题可能是，与Waymo或特斯拉等美国公司相比，德国制造商和Tier-1没有那么可靠的数据库来训练和验证他们的系统。此外，对于ADAS扩展必不可少的交通控制系统、云基础设施和其他公共基础设施的开发目前还处于起步阶段。因此，德国汽车制造商和供应商在驾驶员辅助系统领域的高水平专业知识再次受到下一级别自动驾驶的考验。

问：本月，欧盟国家同意一项450亿欧元的芯片生产计划，该提案包括允许国家补贴范围更广的芯片，而不仅仅是最先进的芯片。欧洲汽车行业将在多大程度上受益于欧盟芯片法案？

答：通过《欧洲芯片法》，欧盟正试图解决进一步产业发展的战略问题。特别是在新冠病毒封锁和价值链崩溃的阶段，德国汽车行业经历了生产流程的中断。鉴于新兴的地缘政治和经济政策发展，预计通过世界市场采购芯片可能成为欧洲工业的战略问题。这就是“主权”呼声越来越高的背景。欧盟芯片法案未来能否以及在多大程度上解决这一战略问题，目前还无法评估。尤其是短期内无法解决芯片尤其是高性能芯片供应紧张的问题。

以下是采访原文（英文）：

Q:With the fact that software is now taking on a much more important role, will the workers cultivation system in the automobile industry be reformed? In other words, is higher technological requirement necessary for labor forces in the automobile industry in the future?

A: The growing importance of software in the automotive industry is an essential moment of a fundamental change in the industry. At its core, it is about the emergence of a new mode of production based on data and information. The automotive industry is thus faced with the challenge of implementing a major transformation to align its business models and its production methods with this information economy. This can only succeed if employees acquire new qualifications and competencies and the composition of the workforce matches the new profile. The following are therefore required: New software competencies, especially in technology areas that have received little attention in the automotive industry to date (cloud, AI, software life cycle management, software architecture, etc.). Competencies in the environment of data-based economies, in particular data science and analytic, as well as an associated fundamental change in the organization of value creation in the sense of continuous innovation processes (agility). Competencies for successful collaboration in ecosystems, especially with companies from other industries with different core competencies and cultures (for example, from the Internet economy, the energy industry, the IT industry, etc.). And a new key competence is emerging in the interaction between software and hardware. German automotive manufacturers have very high competencies in the area of hardware. They must now learn to combine these with high competencies in modern software development. All in all, this means that the growing importance of software as a central moment in the transition of the automotive industry towards the information economy is also accompanied by a paradigm shift in the qualifications of the workforce. This includes not only new technological competencies, but above all skills in the area of cross- functional teamwork, collaboration across different disciplinary contexts and communicative expertise, i.e. the ability to successfully share technical expertise with experts from other disciplines.

Q: The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States includes tax credits for new and used electric vehicles, as well as incentives for commercial electric vehicles. Many South Korean and Japanese auto companies dislike the bill because they believe it is unfair to open market competition. Can you analyze how the IRA will affect the electric vehicle market in Germany or Europe?

A: It is not yet possible to conclusively assess what the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will mean for the future of the European auto industry. Germany is seriously discussing it. On the one hand, the German automotive industry is accustomed to responding to localization requirements in terms of localization strategies. On the other hand, due to the special importance of the United States and the complex geopolitical landscape, the IRA has the potential to trigger developments that negatively affect the workforce in the German and European automotive industries. It is still very large. With proper localization strategies, large companies can manage the associated consequences. However, the economic fallout, especially on employment at European firms, could lead to more serious distortions.

Q: How do you see the future of Tesla's German factory (Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg)? What are the main challenges they face with their planned output and recruitment system in Germany?

A: Tesla chose a risky strategy to establish itself in the European market by locating the Gigafactory in Berlin-Brandenburg. Building a factory near Germany's largest factory, VW's factory in Wolfsburg, would not only mean challenging Europe's largest automaker but also risking competing with Germany's auto industry for wages and working conditions. In fact, Tesla is clearly struggling to meet its production targets in Germany, as employees are being hired and onboarded at a slower pace than is needed to meet production targets. In recent weeks, there have been growing reports of staff recruitment difficulties, high rates of sick leave and high staff turnover compared with German standards. The IG Metall industrial union attributes this to the fact that wages at Tesla, for example, are around 20 percent below the collective bargaining level of major German manufacturers. So a key question for Tesla's success will be how they relate to labor relations in Germany, and whether they are willing to work with German unions and agree to collective bargaining terms.

Q: At present, North America has a considerable market share in the European ADAS market, do you have any survey on the performance of the main competitors (Bosch, BMW, Continental) in the European ADAS market?

A: German manufacturers have a long tradition in developing driver assistance systems and are investing heavily in ADAS. However, in order to further develop these technologies, they need expertise in certain key technologies (SoC, AI, cloud, etc.), and this expertise mainly comes from US manufacturers (Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel). This creates strategic dependencies with unresolved consequences. Probably the biggest problem with developing ADAS is that German manufacturers and Tier-1s don't have as reliable a database to train and validate their systems as compared to American companies like Waymo or Tesla. Additionally, the development of traffic control systems, cloud infrastructure, and other public infrastructure essential to ADAS expansion is currently in its infancy. The high level of expertise of German automakers and suppliers in the area of driver assistance systems is thus once again put to the test for the next level of autonomous driving.

Q: This month, EU countries agreed to a 45 billion-euro chip production plan, a proposal that would allow states to subsidize a wider range of chips than just the most advanced ones. To what extent will the European auto industry benefit from the EU chip law?

A: With the European Chip Law, the EU is trying to address the strategic issue of further industrial development. Especially during the phase of the corona-virus lockdown and the collapse of value chains, the German automotive industry experienced disruptions in production processes. Given emerging geopolitical and economic policy developments, it is expected that sourcing chips through world markets could become a strategic issue for European industry. This is the background of the growing calls for "sovereignty". Whether and to what extent the EU chip law will address this strategic issue in the future cannot yet be assessed. In particular, the problem of tight supply of chips, especially high-performance chips, cannot be solved in the short term.（校对/陈兴华）