Intel 2008资本支出调高4%至52亿美元 半导体设备厂商将获益

Intel 2007年资本支出50亿美元，而把2008年资本支出计划将调高4%至52亿美元。资本支出的大部分将用于扩大45nm量产产能，以及32nm工艺的开发。

Intel的资本支出计划将大力推动消费电子及低价PC市场的发展，并将使得多数半导体设备厂商受益，而其中不包括Lam Research与Mattson Technology，因为Intel 45nm工艺生产线并未采用这两家公司的设备。

Intel spent $5.0B in 2007, and guided 2008 CapEx up 4% to $5.2B +-$0.2B. Intel spent in line with its mid-2007 revised CapEx guidance of $4.9B (which was down 10% from original 2007 guidance
of $5.5B). Intel's 2008 CapEx guidance is 12% higher than our original projection of $4.6B, incrementally improving our 2008 CapEx projection to down 14% (from our original projection of down 17%). Considering the primary risk to aggregate spending is memory manufacturers, we maintain our negative bias.

Capital spending towards 45nm production ramp and 32nm development

Intel's 2008 CapEx increase is attributed to the build out of 45nm production capacity, and spending toward the development of 32nm process technology. Although Intel noted that in the second year
after a new process launch, spending increases to support development efforts, we do not see such a pattern in historical spending (i.e., based on a 2-year technology implementation cycle).

Pay now, or pay later - there is a price to be paid for over spending

Based on spending plans by both microprocessor companies, Intel's claims of efficiency gains, and PC unit shipment forecasts, we believe Intel's 2008 CapEx guidance is on the higher side of
historical spending patterns. Samsung's plans to continue aggressive memory spending will exacerbate an overcapacity condition and dampen memory segment financial performance, and considering macroeconomic pressures we believe present incremental spending could further delay an overall SCE recovery.

Intel's planned push into consumer electronics and low-cost PCs

We note that Intel plans to push into the consumer electronics markets with new processors in 2008, and that some of the planned CapEx could be in anticipation of higher capacity needs to address
demand from these efforts.

Beneficiaries of spending

Intel's continued spending should benefit all the SCE companies under our coverage with the except for Lam Research and Mattson Technology, neither of which have 45nm PTOR positions at Intel.
However, we note that both are in contention for 32nm development process of record (DTOR) tools.

Valuation

We value semicap equipment and materials company stocks on a PE basis in a range of 15x to 22x C2008E EPS based upon the quality of the company. We also use a blended valuation methodology combining
measures such as PE, TEVsales, TEVEBITDA, DCF, and PTBV where appropriate as a check when one particular valuation measure does not fully capture the operating dynamic of a company.