集微访谈 | Dan Nystedt：半导体行业低迷将持续整个2023年

集微网消息，在往期的集微访谈栏目中，爱集微有幸采访了TriOrient Investments副总裁Dan Nystedt。Dan Nystedt常驻中国台湾，对中国台湾的半导体供应链以及产业投资有非常深刻的见解。集微访谈就关于半导体行业趋势、制程工艺、供应链多元化、日本芯片产业进程以及汽车芯片供应前景等方面提出了一系列问题，并收到了十分有启发的答复。

问题：2022年，消费电子行业表示需求大幅下降。在智能手机和PC出货量萎缩的趋势下，芯片大厂如何应对这一负面现象？他们会在2023年面临更多订单削减吗？

回答：简单来说，答案是肯定的，他们将在2023年面临更多的订单削减。半导体周期已经下行，需要一段时间才能反弹。

在过去几年的疫情期间，由于许多国家面临封锁或其他限制，人们在新设备上花费了大量资金，包括新的智能手机、平板电脑、在家工作的笔记本电脑和在家上学的台式电脑，以及放松时会购买家用电视、游戏机等。

但现在每个人都有这些设备，而疫情的限制正在结束。人们想要旅行和做其他事情。大多数人可以等着去购买新的电视或电脑。虽然对手机的需求将在第二或第三季度出现小幅反弹，但对于台式机和笔记本电脑等其他产品，今年余下时间甚至可能明年的需求仍将低迷。

我们认为，本次产品低迷可能与2000年至2002年期间相似，当时股市泡沫破灭，对科技产品的需求下降。当时，人们被互联网的兴起和潜力所吸引，导致了“网络繁荣”。

人们因股市上涨而感到富有，因此他们购买了所有新产品。而在泡沫破裂后，人们回去做他们喜欢的其他事情，旅行，远足等。

因此，我们认为半导体的低迷将持续到整个2023年。我们并不像其他一些投资公司那样期待下半年的反弹。

但预测是困难的，尤其是关于未来。我们总是努力保持敏捷，并对数据告诉我们的内容保持开放。也许你可以六月份的时候再问我一次。

问题：台积电、三星和英特尔在尖端芯片制造领域的竞争已经接近白热化。那么，芯片良率提升的关键因素是什么（比如台积电的N3和三星的3GAE）？

回答：半导体制造很困难。在使用EUV光刻机等新技术时，提高良率面临许多挑战。克服这些挑战需要时间和努力。提高产量的关键是减少缺陷，而在EUV中，积碳是一个问题。

公司不仅努力提高产量，而且努力提高产能，这意味着更快地通过生产过程获得更多晶圆。 高端芯片的生产过程有3000 - 4000个步骤。产能取决于减少完成每个晶圆所需的步骤数。

克服严重的EUV光刻生产问题的一个例子，是使用薄膜保护光掩模免受碳污染。EUV工艺产生的碳颗粒会积聚在光掩模上，导致成像缺陷，从而影响良率。防护膜用于保护光掩模。如果没有防护膜，光掩模可能需要被多次清洗，从而导致生产过程的减慢，而且还有破损的风险——光掩模破损会严重导致芯片成本上升。

问题：2022年是美国、中国、日本和欧盟向该行业投入巨资以恢复芯片生产和恢复“技术主权”的一年。您是否认为全球半导体生态系统会越来越碎片化？是否赞同张忠谋的说法：“全球化和自由贸易几乎已死”？

回答：每个建立自己的半导体生产的国家都会造成供过于求。张忠谋比我聪明多了，我不会不同意他的看法。

俄乌冲突改变了许多国家对全球供应链和贸易伙伴，当然还有国防的看法。

许多年前，每个国家都生产自己的钢铁、汽车等。那是一个更加支离破碎的世界。我希望我们不要回到那个时代。

问题：苹果通过在越南和印度生产MacBook和iPhone来实现供应链多元化。您能否评价一下，越南和印度未来在全球芯片供应链中将扮演怎样的角色？

回答：随着供应链的移动，越南和印度可能会见证更多的芯片组装、封装和测试工厂建造在他们的国家。印度其实也是一个非常大的市场，近年来需求不断增长。

但印度将不得不致力于基础设施建设。半导体晶圆厂需要稳定、持续的电力、大量的水和足够的土地来建造晶圆厂集群（一个地区有许多晶圆厂），而这仍然需要很多年。

问题：日本新成立的芯片代工企业Rapidus表示，寻求投资数万亿日元以帮助重启该国的半导体产业，他们将与多家优秀的非日本芯片公司合作和机构来实现他们的目标。根据您的说法，日本想要重返尖端半导体行业的主要挑战是什么？

回答：日本在半导体产业、世界一流的芯片设备和半导体材料公司等方面仍有许多优势可以利用。在半导体制造领域，到目前为止，要想在落后这么多的情况下达到行业顶峰并不容易。毕竟大多数日本芯片制造商还在使用较旧的工艺技术。

问题：在可预见的未来，在汽车和工业电子产品中使用的成熟节点半导体将继续供不应求。您能否分析一下，政府补贴（美国芯片法案和欧洲芯片法案）是否会缓解汽车芯片短缺的症状？

回答：政府补贴将有助于解决成熟节点短缺问题。二手半导体设备曾经有一个巨大的市场。但芯片的短缺导致人们争先恐后地购买任何可用的生产机器。现在大家的成熟工艺都要买全新的设备。成熟芯片的新设备问题是双重的——首先，这意味着成熟技术的芯片会更贵：新设备的成本高于二手设备；其次，成熟技术设备的制造商没有预料到他们的机器会被大量购买，因此他们也争先恐后地增加产量以满足需求，而这仍旧需要花时间。

以下是采访原文（英文）：

Q: In 2022, the consumer electronics sector is now reporting a massive decline in demand. With the trend that the shipments of smartphones and PCs are shrinking, how the big chip foundries response to this negative phenomenon? Will they face more order-cuts in 2023?

A: The short answer is yes, they will face more order cuts in 2023. The semiconductor cycle has turned down and it will take a while to rebound.

Over the past few years during Covid, as many countries faced lockdowns or other restrictions, people spent a lot of money on new devices, including new smartphones, tablets, work-at-home laptops and school-at-home desktop PCs, and vacation-at-home TVs, game machines, etc.

But now everyone has devices, and Covid restrictions are ending.

People want to travel and do other things. Most people can wait to buy a new TV or computer. Demand for handsets will see a small rebound in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, but for other products like desktop and laptop PCs, demand will remain lackluster for the rest of this year and possibly next year as well.

Our view is that this product downturn could look like the 2000-2002 period, when a stock market bubble crashed and demand for tech items fell. At the time, people were enthralled by the rise and potential of the Internet, leading to the 'dotcom boom.'

People felt rich due to the stock market rise, so they bought all the new gadgets. After the crash,

people went back to doing other things they enjoyed, travel, hiking,etc.

So we believe the semiconductor downturn will last throughout 2023. Weare not looking for a second-half rebound, as some other investment houses are.

But predictions are difficult, especially about the future. We always try to stay nimble and remain open to what the data tells us.

Ask me again in June.

Q: The competition of cutting edge chip manufactures are already near super-heating among TSMC, Samsung and Intel. Accordingly, what are the crucial ingredients concerning the improvement of chip yield rate (such as TSMC’s N3 and Samsung’s 3GAE)?

A: Semiconductor manufacturing is difficult. When using new technology like EUV lithography machines, there are many challenges to boosting yield. It takes time and effort to overcome those challenges.

A key to improving yield is reducing defects, and in EUV, carbon residue build up is a problem.

Companies work hard not only to improve yield, but also throughput, which means getting more wafers through the production process faster. There are 3,000 - 4,000 steps in the production process of a high end chip. Throughput depends on reducing the number of steps needed to

finish each wafer.

One example of how the industry overcame a serious EUV lithography production problem was by using a pellicle to protect the photomask from carbon contamination. Carbon particles resulting from the EUV process built up on the photomask, causing defects in the imaging - which hurt yields. The pellicle was used to protect the mask. Without a pellicle, the photomask might have to be washed many times, slowing the production process - and also risking breakage. Breaking a photomask is very expensive.

Q: 2022 was the year when America,China, Japan and E.U are pumping huge sums of money into the industry to re-shore chip production and restore“technological sovereignty”. Do you believe the global semiconductor ecosystem would be more and more fragmented, and do you agree Morris Chang’s claim: “globalization and free trade are almost dead”?

A: Every country building its own semiconductor production is going to cause a glut. Morris Chang is a lot smarter than I am. I would not disagree with him.

Russia's invasion of the Ukraine has changed the way many countries view global supply chains and trading partners, and, of course, national defense.

Many years ago, every country made all of its own steel, autos, etc. It was a more fragmented world. I hope we do not return to that.

Q: Apple is diversifying its supply chain by producing MacBook and iPhone in Vietnam and India. Could you evaluate, what the roles of Vietnam and India would be playing in the global chip supply chain in the future?

A: Vietnam and India will probably see more chip assembly, packaging and testing factories built in their countries as supply chains move. India is also a very big market and demand there has grown in recent years.

But India will have to work on its infrastructure. Semiconductor fabs need stable, constant electricity, lots of water, and enough land for fab clusters (many fabs in one area).

It will still take many years.

Q: Japan’s newly formed chip foundry venture Rapidus says, it is seeking to invest several trillion yen to help reboot the country’s semiconductor industry and they will cooperate with quite a few elite non-Japanese chip companies and institutions to achieve their goal.According to you, what are the main challenges for Japan’s ambition to get back into the leading-edge semiconductor business?

A: Japan still has a number of strengths it can leverage in the semiconductor industry, world class chip equipment and semiconductor materials companies, and more. In semiconductor manufacturing, it's not going to be easy to try to reach the top of the industry when so far

behind. Most Japanese chip manufacturers use older process technologies.

Q: Mature node semiconductors, which are often still used in automotive and industrial electronics, are set to remain in short supply for the foreseeable future. Could you analyze, will government subsidies (US Chip Act and European Chip Act) alleviate the symptom of automotive chip shortages?

A: Government subsidies will help with mature node shortages. There used to be a huge market for second-hand (used) semiconductor equipment. But the shortage caused a scramble to buy up any production machinery that worked. Now everyone has to buy brand new equipment for mature processes. The problem with new equipment for mature chips is twofold - first, it means mature technology chips will be more expensive.

New equipment costs more than second-hand equipment. The second problem is the makers of mature technology equipment did not expect a boom for their machinery, so they are also scrambling to increase production to meet demand. It will take time.