【商业往事】第47话：讯息不完整下做决定

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讯息不完整下做决定

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（英文文章在中文文章之后）

诺曼•史瓦兹柯夫将军讲了一个关于如何经由导师形塑他的生活还有他决策风格的故事。这是一个史瓦兹柯夫还没成为一个众所皆知的「Stormin’ Norman」(史瓦兹柯夫将军的昵称)之前，关于史瓦兹柯夫将军与一位长官共事的故事。

史瓦兹柯夫回忆曾有一次与一位将军会议，这位将军就是史瓦兹柯夫所谓的导师那一型的人。这位将军被要求对一个已经悬宕十年的议题做出决策。这位将军才刚参加会议，他根本没有听这些人讲什么，也不了解内容，就说：「先生们，答案很明显」，然后他便给出了答案。他说：「这就是我们的决定。开始做吧。」

在会议结束后，史瓦兹科夫走到将军眼前问：「可否允许属下发言？」将军回答道：「当然。」史瓦兹科夫说：「将军，我觉得您并不知道这些人都在讨论什么。」

这位将军笑了笑说：「没错。我对此一无所知。」然后他说：「但是你知道吗，10年来没有一个人愿意为这件事情做决策。10年来，他们一直在讨论这件事情，各种反复，其中不乏一些最精明强干的人，但他们依然没能提出任何解决之道。所以可想而知，我们得选一个方法并加以实施。这就是我刚刚所做的事情。因为我觉得，如今所有那些最优秀的人都会开始着手去做，也许会奏效，也许不会。但他们会知道这条路行不通，然后我们再去改变方向，继而走上正轨。但目前的问题在于，这件事情已经成为了毫无任何进展的僵局。决策就是力量，我来这里的目的就是做决策。这也是我的职责使然。当领导的就得担负这个责任。」

对于大多数人来说，做决定是一个令人头疼的问题，即使某些企业领袖，他们的工作本来就是做决策，也会为此头疼。其中一个理由是，人们会害怕做决策是因为讯息不够完整，而决策又有风险。人们通常不知道如何评估风险，却又要在不确定情况下做决定，这就是让人头痛的原因。

我理解到一件事，就是尝试做出完美决策是个愚蠢白费心机的事。我们真的，如果，能够取得足够的讯息，对状况完全掌握，这是会把我们自己逼疯的，也是没有效率的。

做决定，我们需要停止恐惧，不要担心失败，我们需要做到两件事:

[1] 想清楚了，我们的决定做出后最坏的状况是怎样?

[2] 这个最坏状况，是否有补救策施。

Get Comfortable Making Decisions with Incomplete Information

General Norman Schwartzkopf told a small story about how his beliefs and his decision style were shaped by his mentors. The story is about one general who Schwartzkopf had worked for before he became known as “Stormin’ Norman.”

Schwartzkopf recalled a meeting in which a general, who was a kind of mentor for him, was asked to make a decision about a matter that had been stagnant for almost 10 years. This general just stared at the people in the meeting, as if he didn’t clearly hear and understand the issue. But then he said, “The answer is obvious, gentlemen,” adding “That’s our decision. Move on it.”

After the meeting ended, Schwartzkopf asked the general, “Permission to speak freely?” The general replied, “Certainly.” Schwartzkopf said, “General, I think that you don’t know what we were talking about.”

The general smiled and said, “You’re right. I didn’t understand all of it.” Then he added, “But you know what? This has been a decision that no one’s been willing to make for 10 years.” He said, “For 10 years they’ve talked about it, going back and forth. The best minds have been on it, and they can’t decide one way or the other. So you know what? We need to pick one and do it. So I just did. Because I believe that now all the best people are going to go to work on it, and they’ll either make it work or they won’t. They’ll see it’s not working, and we’ll change directions, and we’ll do what’s right, but what’s happened right now is a logjam of nothingness. Decisions are power, and I’m here to make them. That’s what I’m in position for. That’s what I’m a leader for.”

For many people, making decisions is a headache, even for some business leaders who are principally tasked with making decisions. One reason many people dread making decisions is that they usually need to do so under a lack of information where some risk is involved. People often don’t know how to evaluate the risks. It’s this need to make decisions where there’s a lack of certainty that gives decision makers headaches.

One thing that I’ve learned is that trying to make perfect decisions is a foolish endeavor. We rarely, if ever, have or can obtain perfect knowledge of the situation. And attempting to do so can drive us crazy and make us ineffective. To make decisions, we should stop being fearful and stop worrying about failure. 

Then, there are two things that we need to do: 

[1] deeply consider what is the worst case scenario as a result of our decision, and 

[2] consider whether we have any remedy for the worst case scenario.